Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: PLTR

PLTR implied volatility is at 42.95%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

PLTR is trading at $177.49 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 42.95%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$177.49

IV

42.95%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 42.95% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.95%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.56.

The market expects PLTR to stay within ±5.95% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.95%

Exp. Move $

±$10.56

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$166.93 — $188.05

80% Confidence

$163.96 — $191.02

90% Confidence

$160.12 — $194.86

95% Confidence

$156.80 — $198.18

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 42.95% implies a ±5.95% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $166.93 to $188.05.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.