Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 44.84%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $198.52 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 44.84%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$198.52

IV

44.84%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 44.84% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.21%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$12.33.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±6.21% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.21%

Exp. Move $

±$12.33

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$186.19 — $210.85

80% Confidence

$182.72 — $214.32

90% Confidence

$178.24 — $218.80

95% Confidence

$174.36 — $222.68

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 44.84% implies a ±6.21% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $186.19 to $210.85.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.