Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NVDA

NVDA implied volatility is at 33.07%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NVDA is trading at $184.86 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 33.07%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$184.86

IV

33.07%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 33.07% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.58%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$8.47.

The market expects NVDA to stay within ±4.58% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.58%

Exp. Move $

±$8.47

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$176.39 — $193.33

80% Confidence

$174.01 — $195.71

90% Confidence

$170.93 — $198.79

95% Confidence

$168.27 — $201.45

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 33.07% implies a ±4.58% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $176.39 to $193.33.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.