Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 20.20%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $479.28 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 20.20%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$479.28

IV

20.20%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 20.20% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.80%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$13.42.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±2.80% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.80%

Exp. Move $

±$13.42

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$465.87 — $492.69

80% Confidence

$462.09 — $496.47

90% Confidence

$457.22 — $501.34

95% Confidence

$453.00 — $505.56

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 20.20% implies a ±2.80% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $465.87 to $492.69.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.