Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: META

META implied volatility is at 24.00%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

META is trading at $653.06 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 24.00%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$653.06

IV

24.00%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 24.00% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.32%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$21.68.

The market expects META to stay within ±3.32% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.32%

Exp. Move $

±$21.68

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$631.35 — $674.77

80% Confidence

$625.23 — $680.89

90% Confidence

$617.35 — $688.77

95% Confidence

$610.52 — $695.60

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 24.00% implies a ±3.32% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $631.35 to $674.77.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.