Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: FCX

FCX implied volatility is at 41.16%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

FCX is trading at $56.53 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 41.16%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$56.53

IV

41.16%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 41.16% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.70%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.22.

The market expects FCX to stay within ±5.70% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.70%

Exp. Move $

±$3.22

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$53.31 — $59.75

80% Confidence

$52.40 — $60.66

90% Confidence

$51.23 — $61.83

95% Confidence

$50.21 — $62.85

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 41.16% implies a ±5.70% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $53.31 to $59.75.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.