Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 49.73%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $240.78 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 49.73%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$240.78

IV

49.73%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 49.73% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.89%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$16.59.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±6.89% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.89%

Exp. Move $

±$16.59

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$224.20 — $257.36

80% Confidence

$219.52 — $262.04

90% Confidence

$213.50 — $268.06

95% Confidence

$208.28 — $273.28

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 49.73% implies a ±6.89% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $224.20 to $257.36.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.