Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: BA

BA implied volatility is at 25.44%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

BA is trading at $234.53 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 25.44%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$234.53

IV

25.44%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 25.44% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.52%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$8.26.

The market expects BA to stay within ±3.52% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.52%

Exp. Move $

±$8.26

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$226.27 — $242.79

80% Confidence

$223.94 — $245.12

90% Confidence

$220.94 — $248.12

95% Confidence

$218.33 — $250.73

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 25.44% implies a ±3.52% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $226.27 to $242.79.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.