Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AMD

AMD implied volatility is at 43.86%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AMD is trading at $203.17 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 43.86%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$203.17

IV

43.86%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 43.86% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.07%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$12.33.

The market expects AMD to stay within ±6.07% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.07%

Exp. Move $

±$12.33

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$190.83 — $215.51

80% Confidence

$187.35 — $218.99

90% Confidence

$182.87 — $223.47

95% Confidence

$178.98 — $227.36

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 43.86% implies a ±6.07% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $190.83 to $215.51.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.