Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 22.76%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $259.37 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 22.76%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jan 16, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jan 9, 2026

Target Date

Jan 16, 2026

Price

$259.37

IV

22.76%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 22.76% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.15%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$8.17.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±3.15% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.15%

Exp. Move $

±$8.17

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$251.20 — $267.54

80% Confidence

$248.89 — $269.85

90% Confidence

$245.92 — $272.82

95% Confidence

$243.35 — $275.39

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 22.76% implies a ±3.15% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $251.20 to $267.54.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.